Tin Supply Chain · 2026

Tin's two-stage supply chain:
resources are widely dispersed, smelting is highly concentrated

Tin's supply chain is shorter — and more fragmented — than that of most metals. The world's 6 Mt of reserves are spread across a dozen countries in Southeast Asia, South America and Africa, yet the smelting capacity that turns concentrate into refined metal sits overwhelmingly in China. In between lie two ocean legs, one land-border crossing, and an increasingly fragile Wa State corridor.

Data sourcesUSGS MCS 2026 / SMM / China Customs
Reference year2025 (estimated)
Updated2026-11-06
Versionv0.2 · route volumes added
Global tin reserves
6.0Mt
Tin content, USGS basis ("not less than"); static reserve-to-production ratio of roughly 21 years at current mining rates
China · Myanmar · Indonesia combined
55.0%
USGS basis; 3.3 Mt across the three countries — Asia is the absolute center of gravity for tin resources
Mine output share → refined output share
24% → 50%
China mines about a quarter of the world's tin ore but refines half of the world's tin; the gap is filled by imported concentrate
Myanmar share of China's ore imports
19%
2025, tin-content basis (about 10 kt); before the Wa State mining ban in 2023 it was 72–85%, with the DR Congo, Nigeria and Australia filling the gap
01 Where the resources are Resources · Reserves

Tin resources cluster along two metallogenic belts: the Southeast Asia – South China circum-Pacific tin belt and the South American Andean tin belt. Indonesia holds the largest reserves, China ranks second, and Myanmar and Brazil tie for third. But the reserve structure is not the production structure: Indonesia's ores are mostly placer deposits — cheap to mine, with falling grades; the DR Congo holds just 1.5% of reserves yet supplies 9.3% of mine output — a classic high-grade, under-explored source.

Global distribution of tin reserves and mine output

USGS MCS 2026
Bubble size = reserve scale Countries with tin reserves Labels: reserve share · mine output share

Reserve structure

USGS 2025

Reserves vs mine output

Units: kt (tin content)
CountryReservesReserve share Mine outputOutput shareOutput / reserves
02 Where the smelting is Smelting · Refining

Refined tin capacity barely overlaps with the resource map. China produced 178.7 kt of refined tin in 2025, half the world total, with Yunnan alone accounting for half of that — Gejiu is the core cluster. Indonesia ranks second (17%), exporting mostly standard ingots with limited downstream processing; Peru holds 10%, where Minsur's smelting capacity absorbs most of the domestic concentrate. Malaysia (6%), Thailand (3%) and Belgium (2%) have almost no mines of their own — their smelters run on imported concentrate and recycled material. Africa so far only does crude smelting, and its concentrate leaves as raw ore, with the value-added captured offshore.

Global refined tin output, 2025

SMM

The mine / smelter mismatch

Share comparison · 2025
Country / regionMine output shareRefined output shareGap
The mismatch between smelting capacity and resources is what creates the trade flows. China mines 24% of the world's tin but refines 50%; a raw-material gap of roughly 26 percentage points must be filled with imported concentrate — which is exactly why ore from Myanmar, the DR Congo, Nigeria and Australia flows into Yunnan. Malaysia, Thailand and Belgium likewise smelt more than they mine, running on imported concentrate and scrap; Indonesia, Peru and Bolivia mine slightly more than they refine, with the surplus exported, while Brazil and Africa ship out little but ore.
03 How the metal moves Trade Flows

Two stages of flows, two different logics. On the concentrate side, what matters is border crossings and ports: Myanmar uses the Menglian / Gengma border crossings, the DR Congo uses Dar es Salaam, Nigeria uses Lagos. On the refined-tin side, what matters is delivery and consumption: Indonesia routes through Singapore and Rotterdam; China ships general trade and processing trade to Japan and Korea; Malaysia and Thailand import concentrate, process it, and re-export to Europe and the US. Click to switch between the two flow maps.

Mine / crude-tin origin Smelting hub Consumer / transit Line width = relative volume
04 Route detail Route Detail

Broken down node by node, every route has its own physical constraints: crossing capacity, port schedules, political stability. 2025 anchors: China imported tin concentrate totalling roughly 53 kt of tin content (+1.7% YoY); it exported 23 kt and imported 19 kt of refined tin, a net export of about 3,500 t; Indonesia shipped 53 kt of refined tin, the world's largest exporter. All route shares are on a tin-content basis.

The three most fragile links right now: (1) The pace of restart at Myanmar's Wa State Man Maw mine — flooded shafts being dewatered, explosives controls and monsoon logistics compound each other; its share of Chinese imports has fallen from 72–85% before the ban to about 19%. (2) The DR Congo's Bisie mine (17.3 kt of tin content in 2024, about 6% of global supply) sits in North Kivu, where the M23 conflict directly affects the Goma – Dar es Salaam corridor. (3) Indonesia's export quotas and its crackdown on illegal mining are capping shipment flexibility at PT Timah and private smelters.
05 What comes next Roadmap

This version has locked down the structure, coordinates and main corridors, and now carries 2025 physical volumes per route on a unified tin-content basis. The remaining tracks below complete the picture for external use.

Quantify volumes

  • Import shares by country
  • Annual physical volumes per route (tonnes)
  • Unify tin-content basis
  • Monthly trend sparklines

Refine nodes

  • Major mines and smelters
  • Port-level nodes (Dar es Salaam, Burnie, Arica)
  • Border-crossing throughput capacity
  • LME warehouse stock distribution

Add product grades

  • Recycled tin flows (Metallo in Europe / China's scrap imports)
  • Intermediate trade in crude vs refined tin
  • Indirect flows of end products (tin chemicals, solder)
  • Stock migrations and premium/discount linkages

Risk tracking

  • Myanmar restart, Bisie conflict, Indonesian quotas
  • Wa State monthly ore output
  • Security incidents on DRC land corridors
  • Calendar of exporter policy changes